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09/15/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fausto Carmona goes for win No. 17 this evening when the Cleveland Indians continue their three-game series against the Kansas City Royals at Jacobs Field.
Carmona has been a pleasant surprise for the AL Central-leading Indians this season, going 16-8 with a 3.20 earned run average, just one year after finishing 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA.
The 23-year-old righty won his second straight start on Monday against the Chicago White Sox, as he allowed one earned run and three hits in seven innings.
Carmona has beaten the Royals twice already this season and is 2-0 against them in his young career with a 3.77 ERA in six games, four of which have been starts.
Kansas City will counter with right-hander Zack Greinke, who is 6-5 this season with a save and a 3.99 ERA. After three scoreless outings in his three starts since re-joining the rotation, Greinke was roughed up by the New York Yankees on Sunday for three runs and six hits in 3 2/3 innings, but did not factor in the decision of his team's 6-3 loss.
Greinke has faced the Indians 14 times (nine starts) and is 3-5 against them with a 4.39 ERA.
In the first game of this set on Friday, Casey Blake hit a game-ending home run in the bottom of the ninth, as the Indians rallied from three back for a 5-4 win. Franklin Gutierrez started the comeback with a two-run homer in the seventh and Victor Martinez added a solo shot in the eighth for Cleveland, which remained in firm control of the AL Central by 5 1/2 games with the win.
Blake led off the home-half of the ninth and turned on a David Riske (1-4) offering, depositing it over the left-field wall before being mobbed by his teammates at home. It was the 12th time this season that Cleveland won in its final at-bat at home.
With the win, the Indians improved to 16-4 in their last 20 games overall with their eighth win in nine home contests. They have 45 victories at Jacobs Field, their most since finishing 48-33 in 2000.
C.C. Sabathia set a new career high with 13 strikeouts, but allowed four runs over seven innings. The bullpen was lights out from there, with Joe Borowski (4-5) picking up the win after a scoreless ninth.
Brian Bannister allowed just one run on two hits over six frames for the Royals, who have dropped eight of nine. Bannister's bullpen failed him, however. Mark Grudzielanek had two RBI in defeat.
The Indians have taken eight of their 13 meetings with the Royals this season, including five of seven encounters held at Jacobs Field. Kansas City is just 4-12 in Cleveland since the start of the 2006 season.
<< Pirates continue road trip in Houston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates kicked off their 10-game road trip
in a good way and will try for another win tonight when they continue a three-
game series with the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
Jose Bautista put the Pira
<< Rangers try to halt skid versus A's
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers try to put the brakes on a four-game
losing streak this afternoon when they play the third contest of a four-game
set against the Oakland Athletics at McAfee Coliseum.
Texas continued to fall further away
<< Russians one win away from seizing Fed Cup
Moscow, Russia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anna Chakvetadze and Svetlana Kuznetsova
both did their part Saturday, taking the first pair of singles rubbers to hand
Russia a comfortable edge over defending-champion Italy heading into Sunday at
the 45t
<< Aussies leave it late against Norway
Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lisa DeVanna came on as a second-half
substitute and rescued a point for Australia as she scored in the 83rd minute
to give the Matildas a 1-1 draw with Norway on Saturday.
Ragnhild Gulbrandsen sco
Wang knocks Youkilis out of game after hitting him in wrist >>
BOSTON (AP) -Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis left Saturday's game against the New York Yankees with a bruised right wrist after Chien-Ming Wang hit him with a pitch.Youkilis crumpled to the ground in obvious pain. After being tended to by the t
Redskins DE Daniels downgraded to doubtful for Monday night game >>
ASHBURN, Va. (AP) -Washington Redskins defensive end Phillip Daniels did not practice again Saturday and was downgraded to doubtful for Monday night's game against the Philadelphia Eagles.Daniels, who sprained his foot last week against Miami, said
Mississippian is first woman official in Bowl Subdivision >>
MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) -When Jacksonville State and Memphis kicked off Saturday night, line judge S.B. Thomas didn't stand out.Stationed at the goal line, average height, white pants, vertical black and white striped shirt with a white ``L'' in a black
Rhodes has late comeback in 10-7 victory over Birmingham-Southern >>
HOOVER, Ala. (AP) -Chris Catalanotto kicked a 31-yard field goal with 22 seconds left to play to give Rhodes College the lead in their 10-7 come-from-behind victory over Birmingham-Southern on Saturday.Rhodes (2-0 Southern Collegiate Athletic Confer
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
To visit this sports book go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
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