CFL East: Hamilton finally delivers

Football Betting Lines

07/21/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hamilton Tiger-Cats looked the best of any team in week three, something that will have head coach Marcel Bellefeuille smiling - at least until their next game. One game won't solve everything, but at least Hamilton, and in particular quarterback Kevin Glenn, knows the spark from the latter part of last season isn't entirely snuffed out. Meanwhile, the Toronto Argonauts continue to surprise with a second straight victory, and Montreal sits atop the eastern standings with a 2-1 record of their own.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

It took a little longer than expected but chants of "oskee wee wee" were finally heard last week in Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats pulled off their first win of the season, displaying a great all-around brand of football against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in a 28-7 win.

It was a much-improved performance from week one, when the Bombers ran away offensively against Hamilton scoring 49 points. The Ti-Cats had a renewed focus on defense in week three's rematch, as they didn't allow a first down until midway through the second quarter.

The offensive line stepped up big time, giving up just one sack compared with a monstrous seven in week one.

The key for Hamilton, however, was Glenn. If he continues to limit his interceptions - he had none against Winnipeg in week three - and spreads the ball around amongst his receivers, Hamilton will make its way back to being the top team in the east as projected before the season began.

Offensive key for next game: Getting revenge against Winnipeg was good, but now comes a much more important test - a road game against the Montreal Alouettes. Glenn will need to play his absolute best against a defense that limited the Lions to just 12 points in Week 3. Canadian David Stala has emerged as the best option amongst receivers and he'll need another huge game if the Ti-Cats want to get back to .500.

Defensive key for next game: Anthony Calvillo is as good as any quarterback to have played in the CFL, and though the Als have not dominated the way many were expecting, Hamilton can't afford to sleep on the skill set of Montreal's veteran QB. Hindering Calvillo's play is the production of his o-line. The Als have given up a league-leading nine sacks, something the Ti-Cats should be able to exploit on defense.

Look ahead: As if Montreal wasn't a tough enough task, Hamilton has to play the league's best team, the Saskatchewan Roughriders, the following week. It's entirely possible to lose both games - in fact, it's more than likely given how they are both road games - but Hamilton should not get discouraged if that were to happen. They have the weapons necessary to compete, it's just a matter of getting Glenn and company to perform consistently.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

In each of the past two seasons, the Argonauts probably would have lost the two games they managed to win in this young season. Both were come-from-behind, two-point victories in the fourth quarter, the latter via a one-yard TD run in the last two minutes of play.

Whether it's character, heart, or perhaps just a little luck, there's no denying that this year's team will not give up on any game.

Cleo Lemon has been getting better for the blue and white with each passing game. The 30-year-old is adapting to the CFL rather quickly, using the whole field and taking advantage of the bigger end zone, nowhere more evident than a towering toss to Chad Owens for a two-point convert late in week three's game against Calgary.

Perhaps an even bigger boost for the Argos has been the play of Cory Boyd. The rookie looked completely out of sorts in his first game, but has carried for over 100 yards in each of the last two games.

Offensive key to the game: The Toronto Argonauts play at home again, this time against the punchless BC Lions. As much as the Lions have been struggling offensively, they have been tough without the ball and the Argos will have to show their resiliency once again to get through it. Cory Boyd will need to be huge again for the Argonauts to have a chance.

Defensive key to next game: Running back Jamal Robertson makes his first visit to Toronto since signing with BC and will be motivated to not only perform against his former team but also erase his dismal 4-yard effort in week three. Stopping him will be key for the Argos to have a shot at winning three in a row for the first time since a run of seven back in 2007.

Look ahead: The schedule sure gets tough for the Argos after the Lions. Dates with the CFL's two best teams, Montreal and Saskatchewan, may derail what has been a good start for Toronto.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

The gamble worked for a little while, but Winnipeg's luck ran out last week.

After two weeks of strong play from newly acquired Buck Pierce, the quarterback found himself in familiar territory: on the sidelines, injured.

Reports indicate that the Blue Bomber will be out for two-four weeks, a big blow for a team looking to stay in the hunt in the east.

Steven Jyles will step in for the injured Pierce. He's been in the league for five years, but this will be just his second career start. Behind Jyles will be recently signed Joey Elliot, a former Purdue University player.

With such inexperience at the helm for the Bombers, it will be tough to bounce back from a devastating 28-7 loss to Hamilton last week.

Offensive key to next game: Fortunately for the Bombers, they start off the Pierce-less stretch against the league's worst team, the Edmonton Eskimos. Winnipeg's success will depend on how well Jyles can put it together, but running back Fred Reid must play out of his mind to take the pressure off his inexperienced quarterback.

Defensive key to next game: The Eskimos have been having trouble scoring touchdowns, thanks in part to dropped passes by the receiving corps. Winnipeg's defensive backs need to control the backfield and force Edmonton QB Ricky Ray to make a mistake.

Look Ahead: After hosting the Eskimos, Winnipeg travels to take on the other Albertan team. Calgary has been one of the year's best teams, though the sloppy play of Henry Burris is a concern for the Stampeders. If Winnipeg can win at least one of the battles against Alberta, it would be a huge boost of confidence for a team without their star quarterback.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

After giving up 54 points in the season opener, the Alouettes dropped it down to 23 in their second game, and 12 against BC last week.

The defense is coming around, which is bad news for the rest of the league.

Montreal grinded out a win in BC for the first time in 10 years, a positive step for a team that has yet to have a complete game this season.

But perhaps that's asking too much from even the defending champs. Going 2-1 on a three-game western road trip is usually a good showing no matter what team you are.

Offensive key to next game: The Ti-Cats were impressive defensively against the Blue Bombers last week. If that same defense shows up, Montreal will have problems sustaining long drives, meaning kicker Damon Duval may be leaned on for several field goals. What will help Montreal is if quarterback Anthony Calvillo and long-time teammate Ben Cahoon can find the chemistry Als fans know all too well. The slotback made just three catches in last week's game, and given Cahoon's career as a receiver who can get the clutch first down, now is the time to step up.

Defensive key to the game: Kevin Glenn has been lights-out for Hamilton and will be tough to contain for an Alouettes team who've shown some signs of weakness on pass defense. Stop the passing game, in particular receiver David Stala, and the Ti-Cats are in trouble.

Look ahead: Just as they opened the season on a three-game road trip, the Als return to Montreal for a trio of home games. After hosting Hamilton, the surprising Argos come to town. Both are crucial games for the Als to win and maintain their place as the east's best team.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.