Brewers vie to stay hot against Pirates

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One day after starter Chris Capuano earned his first victory in over three years, the Milwaukee Brewers will try to extend their series winning streak over the Pittsburgh Pirates to six games this evening in the second contest of a four-game series at PNC Park.

Capuano took the hill in last night's opener and made his first start since June 3. He gave up one run -- a run-scoring triple by Ronny Cedeno -- on three hits over five innings to notch his first victory since May 7, 2007, snapping a 13-decision losing streak with a 3-1 triumph.

"I have a long view, a long perspective of baseball," said Capuano, who missed all of 2008 and 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery. "I knew that I would eventually get more wins, but I'm just really happy I could get one with the Brewers, with this team."

Jeff Karstens didn't pitch poorly in defeat for the Pirates, holding the Brewers to just three hits. However, one was a solo home run by Prince Fielder, his National League-leading 23rd long ball of the season, and another a two-run homer by Rickie Weeks.

"I felt I had a really good rhythm, throwing strikes," Karstens said. "When I got ahead I was expanding the zone a little bit, making them chase."

John Axford secured the victory for the Brewers and Capuano with a scoreless ninth inning, earning his 12th save and Milwaukee's sixth victory in its last eight games overall.

Weeks has three homers in his last two games and is batting .400 (10-for-25) over a six-game hitting streak with seven RBI. He has a hit in both of his career at-bats versus Pirates rookie Brad Lincoln, who is 0-1 in two starts since winning his first MLB game on June 30.

The fourth overall pick of the 2006 draft, Lincoln has yielded eight runs over his last 11 innings. That includes a no-decision versus the Brewers on July 11 in which he gave up three runs on seven hits, including homers by Ryan Braun and George Kottaras, over six innings of a 6-5 setback in his first career start versus Milwaukee.

The 25-year-old righty is 1-3 with a 5.14 earned run average on the season and 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA over his first two career home starts.

Lincoln's Pirates could be without center fielder and leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen after he sat out Monday's game due to a right shoulder injury suffered on Sunday versus Houston. Without McCutchen, Pittsburgh failed to secure a third straight win and lost for the eighth time in its last 10 games.

The Pirates have lost nine of 12 to the Brewers this year, including five of six at home, and will try to snap Dave Bush's streak of six straight starts having allowed two runs or fewer.

Bush is pitching to a 2.39 ERA in that span and beat the Pirates on July 10, holding them to two runs over 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander also recorded a win at PNC Park on April 20 with seven shutout innings and is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA lifetime against the Pirates.

The 30-year-old, who was born in Pittsburgh, lost to the Braves last time out on Thursday despite giving up just two solo homers and seven hits total in six innings of a 2-1 setback. Bush fell to 4-7 on the season with a 4.07 ERA.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.