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06/11/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a practice round at Oakmont Country Club two months ago, Tiger Woods debated hitting driver into the wind at the 288-yard eighth hole.
But because the world's best golfer has a self-imposed rule never to hit driver at any par three, he pulled a three-wood instead and knocked his tee ball to 25 feet.
Indeed, if you know one thing about this year's U.S. Open site you should know that its members take pride in their course's ability to chew them up and spit them out, to force them to make decisions like the one Woods was forced to make in April.
"Where 'unplayable' is a compliment," one magazine's cover described Oakmont.
Sounds like the perfect place for a U.S. Open.
Trying to picture Oakmont, think Winged Foot with a few extra rows of teeth, like some great white shark waiting to take a bite out of the world's best golfers.
If Winged Foot was frustrating last year, Oakmont is fixing to be damn near impossible this year. Its fairways will be just as narrow, but what Winged Foot lacked in obstacles, Oakmont has in spades.
Even if its landscape reminds us a little of Telly Savales.
Nearly 4,000 trees have been removed since Ernie Els won the last U.S. Open at Oakmont in 1994, most in clandestine late-night landscaping orgies to keep naysayers at bay and avoid any interruption in play.
Nearly every tree in play when Els won is gone.
The course is bald and open, but there are the nearly 200 bunkers to keep players honest, including the famous "Church Pews" bunker down the left side of No. 3, and the rough will be as penal as it was at Winged Foot last year.
The plan is to grow a 12-foot band of the first cut of rough to three inches, then cut the deepest rough left and right of the landing areas to six inches, the same length as Winged Foot.
It's the second year of the USGA's "penalty fits the crime" plan to make recovery shots harder the further off-line a tee shot is.
In the third round last year, Colin Montgomerie made a double-bogey at Winged Foot's par-three third after he found the deep rough in front of a greenside bunker, duffed a flop shot into that bunker, then two-putted for a five.
"Bloody hell!" the Scotsman shouted.
Expect more of that at Oakmont.
The course has been lengthened 284 yards since Els won in 1994 -- no surprise there; lengthening courses has become the norm over the past 10 years -- so it will play 7,230 yards, about 34 yards shorter than Winged Foot last year.
Scores could be astronomical.
After Phil Mickelson's collapse at the 72nd hole at Winged Foot, Geoff Ogilvy won with a score of five-over 285. It was the highest winning number at a U.S. Open in 32 years -- since Hale Irwin's seven-over 287 prevailed at the so- called "Massacre at Winged Foot" in 1974.
Ogilvy played a practice round at Oakmont with Adam Scott and shot in the mid-80s, he said. Ogilvy also claimed his fellow Australian beat him by double-digits.
That news -- as well as Scott's challenge last weekend in Memphis -- makes Scott a clear choice to join a list of the favorites this week. The usual suspects will be there, too.
Woods hasn't won a U.S. Open since Bethpage Black in 2002, two years after he won his first at Pebble Beach. He also finished runner-up to Michael Campbell in 2005 and placed third in 1999, both at Pinehurst No. 2.
His length means lesser clubs into the greens, and his strength will help him out of the rough. Consider last year's missed cut a fluke; Woods admitted he wasn't ready to play the Open so soon after his father's death.
Tiger will be there on the weekend.
Mickelson was on a roll when he arrived at Winged Foot last year, having won two consecutive majors. He practiced at the course up to a year in advance.
That kind of preparation may have cost him this year, though, as Mickelson withdrew from the Memorial two weeks ago and skipped a scheduled start in Memphis with a wrist injury he said he may have suffered chipping from the rough at Oakmont during a practice round.
If you're looking for favorite 1b, Mickelson is often your guy. But I don't see him winning this year, even if the "redemption" storyline -- which you will see ad nauseam on TV this weekend, we promise you -- gets him into contention.
The remainder of golf's former "Big Five" all make interesting choices, too, especially two-time U.S. Open winners Els and Retief Goosen.
Els won his first Open at Oakmont in '94, then won at Congressional three years later. But is he ready to win again on such a big stage? I'm not so sure. Plus, Oakmont is a different course this time around.
Goosen won at Southern Hills in 2001 and at Shinnecock in 2004. Although he's recently tumbled out of the top 10, he has shown signs of returning to the form that once made him a top-five player. Plus, he's got the U.S. Open game.
Vijay Singh has never won a U.S. Open, but he has two victories already this year and appears to have broken free of the slump that claimed the last half of his '05 season and the first half of '06. With his all-around game, the Fijian can never be counted out.
Looking elsewhere, there are grinders and international stars who can be considered threats.
Keep an eye on Scott, for sure, and Masters champion Zach Johnson, who won again at the AT&T Classic four weeks ago. Sergio Garcia is still the "Best Player Never to Have Won a Major," although if Scott keeps winning he might soon snatch that dubious crown.
Then there's the trio of players everyone forgets could have each won at Winged Foot last year.
Jim Furyk, Padraig Harrington and Montgomerie all joined Mickelson on a list of players who collapsed at Winged Foot's hilly 18th green on Sunday. Harrington recently won the Irish Open -- winning your national championship, he said, is second only to winning majors -- and Montgomerie's shotmaking skills are too good for him to be counted out.
But I'm going with Furyk to win his second U.S. Open.
Now ranked No. 3 behind Woods and Mickelson, Furyk won at Olympia Fields in 2003 with a control game that will suit Oakmont just fine. It's a long course, but more important than that, it's a course where control is of the utmost importance.
If he hadn't backed off one too many times from a relatively easy par putt at the 72nd hole last year -- he eventually missed it -- Furyk could have forced a Monday playoff with Ogilvy at Winged Foot.
"I'm disappointed," he said afterward. "I played my heart out and it didn't work."
I see it ending differently for Furyk this year.
Here's how some others see it:
JIM GILLIS, MANAGING EDITOR: Vijay Singh
Vijay Singh might not be the top choice of some so-called experts, but maybe it's finally his time. He's never won a U.S. Open and only once has he finished in the top-five (T-3 at Pinehurst in 1999), but the three-time major champion does have seven top-10 finishes in his 13 appearances. That always makes Singh a contender. He tied for sixth in each of the last two Opens and this year has a pair of PGA Tour victories to his credit. It's been three years since his last major triumph. He's due for another.
PHIL SOKOL, DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS: Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els
Driving is the key at Oakmont, where the rough is the thickest the pros will face in years. Furyk's ranked second in driving accuracy and can certainly make plenty of birdies. As for Tiger: No reasons needed. Els won here in 1994 and his game has showed signs of improvement. As for darkhorses, I look for good putters who will do well on the 13-plus greens. Players like Justin Rose, Aaron Baddeley and, this might sound crazy, Fred Funk. He is one of the straightest-hitting guys on tour and a decent putter.
KEVIN CURRIE, GOLF EDITOR: Ernie Els
I think Oakmont is going to weed out those who haven't won a major before. Therefore, look for someone who has not only won a major, but this championship. That means, look out for guys like Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els. The choice here is Els. He struggled earlier in the year with an equipment change, but he is rounding into form. Plus, he won the last time Oakmont hosted the Open. I was leaning towards Goosen, but since sharing second at the Masters, his best finish was a tie for 15th at the Asian Open.
GREG WILEY, STAFF WRITER: Tiger Woods
When Tiger Woods is in the field I have to go with him. I know it's the easy pick, but it's also the smart pick. We all know that the USGA likes to test all aspects of a golfer's game and Tiger is the most well-rounded golfer out there. This year Oakmont is going to play at over 7,200 yards and the toughness of the greens are already being talked about by the players. Woods is in the top-10 in greens in regulation and putting average, and ranks 22nd in driving distance. His one downside is driving accuracy, which ranks 165th on the tour (at just over 55 percent). However, his superior strength to everyone else on the tour gives him a huge advantage when working from the thick rough. That is one of the reasons why I'm not big on Phil Mickelson this week. His driving accuracy is also poor at just over 56 percent and his injured wrist will hurt him when working from the rough. Jim Furyk is also a solid pick to win. The second-ranked player in the world lacks distance off the tee, but that won't hurt as much since he ranks second in driving accuracy, 13th in greens in regulation and 77th in putting average. If you're looking for a true darkhorse, go north of the border and look at Mike Weir. He's not going to win, but could have a strong showing. He finished tied for 20th at the Masters and has three top-25s in his last five tournaments. He has also been strong in past U.S. Opens. The left-hander has five top-20 finishes and three top-10s, including a tie for sixth last year, in eight U.S. Open appearances.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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